AustralieFrV1, Main, Exploration, bibRecord, 003F56

Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing

Identifieur interne : 003F56 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 003F55; suivant : 003F57

Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing

Auteurs : Steven C. Sherwood [Australie] ; Sandrine Bony [France] ; Jean-Louis Dufresne [France]

Source :

Nature : (London) [ 0028-0836 ] ; 2014.

RBID : Pascal:14-0050418

Descripteurs français

Pascal (Inist)
- Réchauffement climat, Changement planétaire, Changement climatique, Analyse sensibilité, Incertitude, Rétroaction, Nuage, Troposphère, Processus mélangeant, Convection atmosphérique, CMIP3, CMIP5, Modèle climat, Modèle multiple, Modèle circulation générale.
Wicri :
- topic : Changement climatique.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Atmospheric convection, Climate models, General circulation models, Mixing process, Multimodel, climate change, climate warming, clouds, feedback, global change, sensitivity analysis, troposphere, uncertainties.

Abstract

Equilibrium climate sensitivity refers to the ultimate change in global mean temperature in response to a change in external forcing. Despite decades of research attempting to narrow uncertainties, equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates from climate models still span roughly 1.5 to 5 degrees Celsius for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, precluding accurate projections of future climate. The spread arises largely from differences in the feedback from low clouds, for reasons not yet understood. Here we show that differences in the simulated strength of convective mixing between the lower and middle tropical troposphere explain about half of the variance in climate sensitivity estimated by 43 climate models. The apparent mechanism is that such mixing dehydrates the low-cloud layer at a rate that increases as the climate warms, and this rate of increase depends on the initial mixing strength, linking the mixing to cloud feedback. The mixing inferred from observations appears to be sufficiently strong to imply a climate sensitivity of more than 3 degrees for a doubling of carbon dioxide. This is significantly higher than the currently accepted lower bound of 1.5 degrees, thereby constraining model projections towards relatively severe future warming.

Affiliations:

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

to stream PascalFrancis, to step Corpus: 000560
to stream PascalFrancis, to step Curation: 005897
to stream PascalFrancis, to step Checkpoint: 000087
to stream Main, to step Merge: 004011
to stream Main, to step Curation: 003F56

Le document en format XML

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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Equilibrium climate sensitivity refers to the ultimate change in global mean temperature in response to a change in external forcing. Despite decades of research attempting to narrow uncertainties, equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates from climate models still span roughly 1.5 to 5 degrees Celsius for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, precluding accurate projections of future climate. The spread arises largely from differences in the feedback from low clouds, for reasons not yet understood. Here we show that differences in the simulated strength of convective mixing between the lower and middle tropical troposphere explain about half of the variance in climate sensitivity estimated by 43 climate models. The apparent mechanism is that such mixing dehydrates the low-cloud layer at a rate that increases as the climate warms, and this rate of increase depends on the initial mixing strength, linking the mixing to cloud feedback. The mixing inferred from observations appears to be sufficiently strong to imply a climate sensitivity of more than 3 degrees for a doubling of carbon dioxide. This is significantly higher than the currently accepted lower bound of 1.5 degrees, thereby constraining model projections towards relatively severe future warming.</div>
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Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing

Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing

Source :

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

Le document en format XML

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri